The Economist
reported the recent polar vortex that hit the east coast “chipped $3 billion
off American output.” It’s not earth shattering that weather impacts the
economy, whether for the short or the long run. Economists are beginning to
study how long term climate change will alter economic activity. While the cold
weather is taking its toll temporarily on the US, a slew of studies suggests
that heat and poverty are related, and that a hotter climate may reduce economic
growth.
New research shows that “for each 1°C rise in the average temperature of a
country, its GDP per head is 8.5% lower. Another study of poor countries alone
showed that being 1°C warmer in any given year reduces income per head by
1.4%.” While this does not necessarily mean that if the world’s average climate
warms that the world’s economic output will fall by 8.5% across the board, it
does mean the correlation between heat and the economy needs to be explored
further. Several studies show that tropical countries’ GDP growth was slower in
the past few years than the global average from 1965-90. Higher temperatures
and droughts affect farm yields, which impacts poor to middle income countries
who depend on agriculture.
But,
it is important to recognize that a hotter climate will not only negatively impact poor
countries, as is the common misconception.
As I’ve learned after just
two weeks of taking a course on Global Climate Change, the earth’s climate
system is incredibly complex. Understanding the interplay of positive and
negative feedbacks, reaction timescales, and different components like ice,
vegetation, ocean currents and carbon cycles is daunting without humans in the
equation. But human life has become inextricably tied to the climate and the impact
of our infrastructure and resource extraction and consumption is still
difficult to fully understand. However, scientists have made great strides in
their empirical understanding of how our economic activity is both changed by
the climate and how it in turn plays a role in climate change. Soon, economic policy in
countries like ours will have to move closer towards stemming emissions and
promoting sustainability in order to prevent a backward slide.
Source:
No comments:
Post a Comment